ABC score is a better predictor for 30-day mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A prospective single-center study

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) still has a mortality rate of about 10%. Several pre-endoscopy scoring systems have been developed to predict the outcome, but none accurately predict mortality. The present study was aimed at comparing the new ABC score (age, blood tests and comorbidities) with other pre-existing scoring systems to predict mortality. METHODS: This prospective single-center study was done at a tertiary hospital in India in 2022-2023. Patients > 18 years presenting with UGIB within 48 hours were included in the study. They were divided into variceal and non-variceal UGIB cohorts and were followed for 30 days after receiving standard-of-care treatment. RESULTS: Out of 296 patients, 168 (56.7%) had variceal (V) bleed, while 128 (43.2%) individuals had a non-variceal (NV) type of GI bleed. The mortality rate was 9.8% (n = 29), which was higher among the V bleed group compared to the NV bleed group (8.7% vs. 1.1%). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for ABC score was the highest (0.75) compared to other scoring systems and was also more significant among deaths related to V bleed (0.76) than NV bleed (0.64). Hypoalbuminemia and > 3 blood transfusions are significant factors in predicting mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that the ABC score is superior to other scores in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with UGIB. ABC score may be a better predictor of mortality among V bleed patients than NV bleeds.