Crime against women in India: district-level risk estimation using the small area estimation approach

Background: The global prevalence of crimes against women has made it an enduring public health challenge that has persisted over time. The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) is intricately tied to the actions taken to prevent these crimes as their repercussions directly affect progress across various SDGs. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive examination of the prevalence of crimes against women across districts and states in India, analyzing changes from 2020 to 2022, and subsequently identifying associated factors. Methods: The study is an ecological analysis conducted across all districts of India using the data on crimes against women for the period 2020 and 2022 obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) of India. A small area estimation method was used to obtain district-level relative risks of crime against women for both periods. Hotspot analysis was carried out to identify the current hotspots and coldspots. Further spatial regression was used to identify the factors associated with crimes against women in the year 2022. Results: The results indicated a rise in the reported crime against women cases between 2020 and 2022. The rate of crimes against women at the national level was found to be 57 in the year 2020, whereas, in 2022, it increased to 67. The highest crime rate in the year 2022 was found to be 145 in Delhi, while Nagaland had the lowest crime rate of 5. The relative risk of crime against women varied from 0.046 to 4.68 in 2020, while in 2022, it spanned from 0.02 to 6.10. Significant hotspots were found in parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Telangana, and Odisha. The results of the spatial error regression model showed that the sex ratio and the population density of the district have significant associations with the occurrence of crimes against women. Conclusion: The rise in the incidence of crime against women emphasizes the importance of tackling the spatial inequality in relative risk across Indian districts. By thoughtfully addressing this variation and conducting targeted studies in high-risk areas, we can enhance our understanding of the obstacles to implementing effective measures against violence targeting women.