Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India: A Strategic Analysis for Sustainable Religious Tourism Growth

The exponential growth of the tourism industry in India significantly impacts the nation’s economic landscape. This study presents an analysis of tourism arrival trends from 2000 to 2019 to forecast foreign tourist arrivals, aligning with the broader scope of religious tourism and pilgrimage. Employing the Box-Jenkins methodology, the research aims to project short-term forecasts for inbound tourism. Diverse modelling techniques are explored to capture the nuances of the time series data, including the assessment of stationarity using the Dickey-Fuller Test to discern underlying trends. The study culminates in identifying the A.R.I.M.A (0, 1, 1) model with drift as the most effective for prediction, supported by rigorous accuracy tests. Embracing both linear and nonlinear models, the analysis extrapolates insights for the next five years, crucial for the interdisciplinary considerations of religious tourism and pilgrimage. The anticipated values serve as a cornerstone for crafting a holistic tourism development strategy, vital for sustainable growth within the context of religious tourism, thereby precluding potential adverse impacts on the sector.