Future of Indian automobile industry: A system dynamics approach

The Indian automobile industry is experiencing an exponential rise in demand, but its sustainability is an issue due to the dynamic nature of the market and environmental conditions. This paper deals with the development of a System Dynamic model to simulate Indian automobile market dynamics. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of three major dynamic factors viz., accidents, pollution and oil crisis. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for a quarter of a century. As sustainability of the automobile industry is dependent to a great extent on these factors, the study result projects the future scenario. The result obtained would provide significant leads to the manufacturers of automobile and infrastructure providers, as it studies the cumulative effect of the critical factors. Even though the result is at the national front, the concept can be extended globally.