Geopolitical instability and environmental sustainability

Geopolitical instability significantly impacts environmental sustainability, yet its role remains underexplored. This study investigates how geopolitical risk affects ecological footprints and carbon emissions, key proxies for environmental sustainability, using panel data from 27 countries (1990–2020). Panel quantile regression results show a significant relationship between increased geopolitical risk, ecological footprints, and carbon emissions, with coefficients ranging from 0.357 to 0.785 across quantiles in the case of ecological footprints and 0.939–1.961 for carbon emissions. We control the estimation for inflows of foreign direct investment, economic growth, environmental patents, stringency, trade, and population. Economic growth correlates with a decrease in environmental sustainability, while environmental sustainability demonstrates an inverse relationship with ecological footprint and carbon emissions. The findings have policy implications because they can guide policymakers to take risks emanating from geopolitical uncertainty, while formulating environmental policies. Moreover, addressing increased environmental innovation and enhancing coverage of carbon taxes can help maintain environmental sustainability.