Statistical predictors of match outcomes: Insights into offense defence and goalkeeping dynamics in elite handball at the Paris 2024 Olympics

Purpose: The study identified the key performance indicators (KPIs) in elite handball their prognostic value in the context of the 2024 Paris Olympic Men’s Handball Tournament. By analyzing offensive, defensive and disciplinary indicators, the study distinguished winning teams from losing teams at different stages of competition. Methods: Data from 32 matches involving 16 teams, were collected including performance metrics such as goals, assists, and goalkeeping efficiency. Statistical analyses, including descriptive statistics, t-tests, Mann-–Whitney U tests, and regression analysis, were applied to evaluate performance trends and predictive factors. Statistical correlations were evaluated by correlation coefficients, while ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis tests analyzed differences in performances at different stages of the competition. Logistic regression computed the likelihood of match outcomes based on performance indicators. Results: The successful teams, in this case, had better offensive statistics than their defeated opponents in goals scored (33.5 ± 4.32 versus 28.5 ± 3.27) and assists (18.7 ± 3.4 versus 14.5 ± 2.6). Defensive measures made by the goalkeeper (14.5 ± 3.6 vs. 10.2 ± 4.1) and steals, among others, counted. Also, a disciplinary measure such as technical fouls and 2-minute suspensions disturbed the performance of losing teams and probably disallowed them from winning. Logistic regression analyzed goals scored (OR=1.20, p<0.001) and assists (OR=1.10, p=0.02) as the strongest predictors of winning. Conclusions: As the tournament progresses, these indicators demonstrate the growing importance of KPIs, as precision and discipline assume an important status in the elimination rounds. Strategic advice includes improving offensive efficacy while minimizing errors so that competitive success can be realized. KPIs such as goals and assists, as well as discipline, are very significant in handball match results. Deriving great insights from these indicators is great for coaches and teams aspiring to perform well in the Olympics.