The SIUQRD and Matern 5/2 GPR Models describing the Covid-19 Pandemic in India

Basudha Pal, Vikas R. Bhat, H. Anitha

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study an SIUQRD model for the Corona Virus pandemic in India has been discussed, the Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) have been fitted and the parameters have been estimated for the two successive waves that affected the country. The data has been taken from 30/01/2020 to 12/02/2021 for fitting the first wave and 13/02/2021 to 18/06/2021 for fitting the second wave. The value has been calculated for a span of 14 days towards the end of the second wave in absence of original data to analyze the pandemic situation for the next two weeks (19th June to 2nd July). Upon fitting the data for the two waves, the required model parameters are estimated. The study has further been extended to predict the number of cases for the same time period (19th June to 2nd July) using a machine learning model - Matern 5/2 GPR with satisfactory performance metrics. Finally, the original data during the two weeks is compared with the data predicted by the Matern 5/2 GPR model to check the performance of the model. This Matern 5/2 GPR model, to the best of our knowledge is being applied to predict the COVID-19 pandemic for the first time in India.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2021 4th International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies, ICECCT 2021
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781665414807
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event4th International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies, ICECCT 2021 - Erode, India
Duration: 15-09-202117-09-2021

Publication series

Name2021 4th International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies, ICECCT 2021

Conference

Conference4th International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies, ICECCT 2021
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityErode
Period15-09-2117-09-21

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Software
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'The SIUQRD and Matern 5/2 GPR Models describing the Covid-19 Pandemic in India'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this