Urban Expansion and Land Use Transformations in Midnapore City (2003–2024): Implications for Sustainable Development

Amidst global shifts in land use patterns due to urbanization, this study focuses on the rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Midnapore City during the periods 2003–2014 and 2014–2024. The study employs Landsat 5 and 8 imagery with 30 m spatial resolution which were processed through Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithms. The results were attained through ArcGIS 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 2014 software, with ground-truth validation using data from 117, 111, and 116 points for 2024, 2014, and 2003, respectively. For the validation, the kappa coefficient was calculated and achieved 87.3%, 88.1%, and 81.7% for 2024, 2014, and 2003, indicating substantial accuracy. Using statistical measures such as change matrix union, binary logistic regression, and correlation matrix analysis applied to classified LULC outputs and spatial drivers, the research highlights significant transformations in the region. The study reveals significant transformations, notably the conversion of 77% of forest areas and 5% of fallow land to built-up land. The increased rate of agricultural land conversion to built-up areas is evident after 2014, indicating rapid urban growth. These factors led to the reduction of LULC classes possessing substantial ecological value like forests and scrub lands which are becoming more accessible due to the increasing population. The results point out the drastic alteration of these developments and recommend a planning approach responsive to environmental needs for safeguarded ecological impacts. The research highlights the importance of reforestation, preservation of water bodies, and socio-economic surveillance in fostering urban management and sustainable development in Midnapore City.